Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 83115.483059 87739.573006 92362.932525 97329.135609 102509.323216 107750.042584 113449.419689
2025-02-16 74811.620463 81842.233253 89070.535932 97047.287873 105592.721366 114462.345735 124353.988483
2025-02-23 69378.818136 78065.121429 87193.054126 97479.108690 108726.128234 120628.761032 134155.875672
2025-03-02 64975.609897 74869.014324 85458.158967 97600.533032 111103.244083 125621.935799 142376.930872
2025-03-09 62162.280997 73114.311995 85023.361502 98884.004226 114519.598011 131558.048007 151474.495577
2025-03-16 58786.857573 70477.679662 83377.593289 98598.409449 115994.281633 135182.582007 157872.983302
2025-03-23 56909.031397 69395.961313 83354.365655 100023.978939 119295.095396 140777.939879 166437.628257
2025-03-30 54947.359092 68087.765305 82957.213044 100916.409783 121900.836232 145523.950102 174002.023034
2025-04-06 52765.297887 66403.055605 82017.525390 101081.121926 123582.896847 149150.154822 180241.565707
2025-04-13 50659.177034 64706.506247 80971.677821 101034.828288 124945.041405 152351.397973 185953.233040
2025-04-20 49554.054024 64151.487740 81225.915080 102482.597974 128033.782258 157550.197622 194002.933872
2025-04-27 48513.706525 63619.385749 81460.511130 103867.769344 131022.308725 162622.707005 201916.994222
2025-05-04 47120.521642 62619.573126 81108.923529 104540.370948 133173.140777 166744.146476 208779.157927
2025-05-11 45469.709527 61240.899443 80244.554152 104545.767033 134488.410718 169857.074411 214447.740057
2025-05-18 44179.866594 60265.546695 79833.132535 105068.997912 136406.160475 173680.389312 220975.097787
2025-05-25 42787.749670 59108.048972 79148.553012 105211.697135 137824.369976 176880.663065 226746.784065
2025-06-01 42053.954104 58764.430291 79459.610596 106578.429054 140746.064679 181914.986659 234772.592292
2025-06-08 40598.980091 57435.341649 78477.880362 106275.584990 141555.843875 184341.648663 239600.707000
2025-06-15 40035.769684 57251.007019 78938.845437 107790.371989 144640.370456 189579.883696 247915.798635
2025-06-22 39256.830470 56752.331063 78971.183040 108738.474948 147000.354993 193923.196458 255143.321736
2025-06-29 38186.938267 55830.615088 78424.086208 108913.452550 148359.082451 197010.368947 260814.179314
2025-07-06 37074.769216 54817.506306 77726.211497 108864.276978 149409.228533 199698.730703 265987.090078
2025-07-13 36664.122446 54741.625573 78249.974988 110402.093554 152499.795876 204968.024315 274429.781779